Betting Wild Card Weekend

The NFL regular season has come to an end and I see pros and cons to having a smaller slate of playoff games on which to bet.

On the one hand, having fewer games to assess can make it harder to find value.

On the other hand, we’ve got six standalone matchups with a lot of casual gamblers betting, so sharp angles will be easier to play and tools like Juice Reel’s Sharpmush^TM will provide extra strong signal by gametime.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I’m fired up to review trends with you and find smart bets.

Today, we’ll look at historical trends pegged to the NFL playoffs with a focus on Wild Card Weekend. As always, we’ll use those learnings as inspirationand research for our bets of the week.

Let’s get after it. 

Wild Card Playoff Trends

The two big categories I want to explore as relates to playoff trends are (1) Favorite vs Underdog Splits, and (2) level of Playoff Experience for key players. For reference, here’s the methodology I use to assess trends in detail.

Favorite vs Underdog Angles

The 2024 NFL regular season was a unique one with favorites dominating to an unusual degree.

It was the most profitable season for betting favorites in nearly a decade, as favored teams posted an overall record of 195-77 (71.7%) straight up. This was the third best season for favorites since 1980 and caused the sportsbooks unexpected pain to their bottom line.

Despite the 2024 regular season being a favorites bonanza, the playoffs have historically told a different story.

Over the past seven seasons, underdogs in the playoffs have been a winning play for bettors. Here are the numbers:

• Underdogs throughout the playoffs are 52-34 against the spread (ATS) for a 61% win rate with a 17% return on investment (ROI).

• Wild Card round underdogs are 24-12 ATS for a 67% win rate with an impressive 30% ROI.

Beyond broad playoff underdog success, there are subgroups worth considering to parse this weekend’s slate. For example:

• Underdogs who missed the playoffs in the prior year are 39-20 ATS since 2017. This weekend that applies to Washington and Denver.

• Underdogs of 1-3 points who meet the criteria for profitable “Wong Teaser” bets (refresh your understanding here) have covered the 6-point teaser line 82% of the time. In order to break even on a two team, 6-point teaser offered at -120, each leg would need to win 73.85% of the time, so the 82% win rate easily clears that hurdle. This weekend that applies to the LA Rams, Houston and potentially Washington (depending where the line settles).

My hypothesis on the source of these trends is simple: casual bettors, who up their betting during the playoffs, gravitate toward favorites (humans like to back the best). The gap between top and bottom teams, however, narrows once you reach the playoffs. This creates extra value vs the spread when betting underdogs.

We’ll use these trends to inform our bets of the week, but for now let’s consider the second category: Playoff Experience Level.

Quarterback Playoff Experience Trends

Quarterback is the most important position on the football roster, and the value of a great QB is immense in the postseason. History tells us that quarterbacks with more playoff experience outperform those without it, all other factors being equal.

Here are two examples:

• Quarterbacks with prior playoff experience, facing those making their first playoff start, are 37-19-1 ATS over the past 20 years, a 66% cover rate! This weekend that applies to Buffalo (Josh Allen vs Bo Nix), Tampa Bay (Baker Mayfield vs Jayden Daniels) and the LA Rams (Stafford vs Sam Darnold).

• Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 72% ATS as playoff underdogs. This trend has been stronger recently, going 14-4 ATS since 2018. The LA Rams (via Matthew Stafford) fit the profile this weekend.

My hypothesis on the source of these trends is that quarterbacks benefit from acclimating to the speed/intensive of playoff football in some way that differs from the regular season. This intanglible is difficult for oddsmakers to capture and creates betting opportunity.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week our analysis of week 18’s special situations paid off as we went 4-0 (!!) and won 4 full units, our best outcome to date.

Derrick Henry got his milestone TD (two of em!), The Jets and Saints showed well against teams with more to play for, and despite reaching his $3 million payday (on the last play of the game), Mike Evans stayed under 98 yards.

Here’s a highlight reel of my Juice Reel receipts:

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 7.9 units, at a positive 27% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

1. Teaser bet of Rams +7.5 (up from +1.5) and Texans +9 (up from +3) on DraftKings @-120 for 1 unit

The Rams show up in multiple positive trends, including having a Quarterback who has won a Super Bowl, an opponent with a first-time playoff QB, and an underdog point spread that lends itself to profitable teaser betting.

The Texans are a good second leg to the teaser, as an underdog of 2.5-3 points who won’t need to overcome a first time playoff QB like the Commanders will.

2. Over 47 in the Vikings/Rams game on BetRivers @-118 for 0.75 units

3. Under 48 in the Broncos/Bills game on Fanatics @-110 for 0.75 units

Both of my totals bets presume that teams who were unusually successful or unsuccessful in their regular season scoring performance will regress to the mean, and I bet the opposite direction.

Rams/Vikings will score more efficiently than they did during the season, with the Rams capitalizing on a healthy set of skill position players being on the field.

Bills/Broncos will kick more field goals and score fewer TDs, per possession, than their season averages.

PS – I won’t count this in our overall record, but I see value in a Ravens futures bet (at +600 or better) to win the Super Bowl given their recent performance and likely playoff path.

Next week we’ll talk about in-game betting, and how to maximize live opportunities.

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