Finding Closing Line Value

Sports betting comes with a lot of variance.

Even an excellent, profitable bettor, who wins 55% of their coin flip bets, will have an 0-4 day twice a month on average.

Downswings will be longer and more severe for bettors who play at longer odds: betting parlays, ladders, or player props with alternate lines.

This variance makes it difficult to estimate a bettor’s ability to pick winners based on results alone, so top bettors focus on a leading indicator of good betting known as “closing line value”.

In short, if you consistently bet at more attractive odds than are offered right before a game begins, you’re likely to show a long-term profit.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the house and giving to the bettors, I am pumped to explain this concept and help you all start to capitalize on it.

Today we’ll talk through how betting markets work, how that drives line movement and creates opportunity for closing line value, and some tips on how to capture it. As always, we’ll make our bets of the week using what we’ve learned.

Let’s get after it.

How Do Sports Betting Markets Work?

Betting markets for NFL games open approximately two weeks before kickoff.

The opening lines, typically just point spreads, money lines and totals, are based on the judgment of smart sportsbook managers, traders, or third-party services.

Most of the betting that takes place this far in advance comes from professionals who believe they have an edge on these early lines. They bet early to prevent their edge from evaporating!

Other sharp bettors may see the same angle they do, and the books will move lines over time using the information that comes from smart early money.

Lines for the “week-away” games go dark when Sunday NFL games kick off, and come back in the late afternoon, often with large movement based on how teams performed in their games that day.

This whole exercise is valuable for sportsbooks because they use early bets from professionals, which are typically limited in size, to improve the accuracy of their lines before the massive influx of betting happens closer to game time. By the end of the week, lines don’t move much unless significant news breaks — a quarterback being unexpectedly injured or a blizzard messing with playing conditions.

This process happens more quickly for sports like basketball and hockey, but it works similarly: early bets from professionals at smaller limits, leading to sharper lines available by game time.

What is Closing Line Value and Why Does it Matter?

As we discussed above, the odds on a game converge to the “correct” price between the release of the opening line and the start of the game. Closing lines are basically the consensus of a lot of money-backed opinions, where smart opinions are weighted most heavily.

Historical data proves this, as closing lines have been a significantly more accurate predictor of game results than the first line offered. This is true in all major team sports.

If a bettor can put themselves on the “right” side of the closing line, thus creating closing line value (CLV), they’re essentially putting a larger share of the distribution of outcomes into their winning bucket.

For example, let’s say you’re eyeing the upcoming Packers vs. 49ers game. Your analysis suggests the Packers should be -3, or even bigger favorites if Brock Purdy is hurt, but the current line is Packers -1.5. Here’s how you’d approach this with CLV in mind:

• Bet Packers -1.5 as soon as possible

• Monitor the line movement throughout the week

• If the line moves to Packers -3 by game time, you’ve secured positive CLV

• Even if the Packers only win by 2, you’ve won your bet while later bettors lost

• That’s the CLV advantage in action

Here are a couple visuals of this concept:

Betting Without Closing Line Value

Betting with closing line value

Closing line value is powerful enough that it’s worth pursuing in order to win. Let’s talk about how to build that skill.

How Can I Get Better at Gaining CLV?

Here are 4 tips for getting your money down at lines or prices that allow you to capture more closing line value. This list is ordered from least to most time intensive. I focused on betting NFL sides/totals, but some tips consider other markets.

1. Bet Earlier in the Week – If you’re betting right before game time, Sunday morning for NFL, there’s no way you’ll gain an edge via closing line value. But building the habit of looking at next week’s lines every Sunday evening will at least put you in the game to win on CLV.

2. Become Awesome at Tracking Movement (and Shopping Lines) – Juice Reel shows past line movement for each game, so you can follow trends and try to gain an extra point if you believe a trend will continue.

   Here’s a Juice Reel example from tonight’s Pistons/Hornets game where Detroit moved from a 1 point underdog to a 2 point favorite.

   

   Today’s article is about finding value by betting before lines move, but you can accomplish the same goal, wagering at a better line, by having multiple sportsbook accounts, and always using a tool like Juice Reel to get the best price.

   If you want to be truly excellent at this, and make the right decisions in complex scenarios, refresh yourself in the “201” section of our line shopping piece from earlier this NFL season.

3. Learn From “Professionals” – I listen to the Sunday evening edition of The Favorites podcast every week. The show closes with a discussion of upcoming NFL games and lines, and the bets to make early in order to “lock in” closing line value.

   The hosts’ directional insight on where lines are headed is pretty good, and you can learn a lot from their discussions and reasoning.

4. Identify Volatile Situations and Monitor the Big Two – Player health, and weather, in that order, are the biggest drivers of movement in NFL game spreads and totals.

   If a key player (usually a quarterback) ends up unexpectedly playing or sitting out, this can swing spreads and totals a few points in either direction. The same thing can happen when bad weather (especially wind) shows up as a risk later in the week. Certain games are more ripe offering closing line value because a key player is “questionable” throughout the week.

   Monitoring the right sources on social media, or setting news alerts, can give you a short window by which to pursue injury related CLV. (Advanced note – many professional bettors find their edge by tracking injuries and playing time notes across the NBA, NHL and other leagues. That approach is outside the scope of today’s newsletter, but is definitely a way to achieve positive CLV).

Bets of the Week $$

Last week I went 1-1, as our Steelers/Ravens under bet won easily (34 total points vs a line of 49), but the Commanders blew an early lead and did not cover against the Eagles.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 2.6 units, at a positive 17.5% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Cleveland +4 @-120 on BetMGM for 1 unit (Thursday Night Football)

• Green Bay -1.5 @-110 on Fanatics for 1 unit

• Arizona Cardinals +1@-115 on DraftKings for 1 unit

These are all cases where I hope to gain closing line value between the time of this newsletter send and kickoff.

In tonight’s game, the line has already moved to Cleveland +3.5 at most sportsbooks, and I’m valuing the half point up to +4 heavily given the low expected total points in the game.

I expect Green Bay to become a larger favorite in cases where Brock Purdy’s injury proves to either keep him out or limit his production, so I like betting at -1.5.

The Cardinals line has already gone back and forth quite a bit, with both teams being favored in the last 48 hours. I feel good about getting a point with Arizona in a case where they’ll likely close as the favorite.