How to Avoid Sports Betting Traps

Opening an online sportsbook app can be an assault on the senses.

Every book has a slew of promotions and low-friction betting options to seduce new players and induce more betting.

Just as casinos use loud, sparkly slot machines to overcome your discipline and lure you to a losing proposition, the sportsbooks are playing the same game.

We’ve spent the last few newsletters talking about ways to find and to maximize winning bets, but to be a winning bettor, it’s equally important avoid tempting but losing propositions.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the house and giving to the bettors, I’m giddy to show you how self-interested the sportsbooks can be.

Let’s identify and talk through two of the biggest betting traps out there, and how to outsmart the sportsbooks at their own game.

As always, we’ll close with our bet(s) of the week, building on the lessons from today’s issue. Let’s get after it.

Trap #1 – Curated Bets or “Specials”

Let’s start with the absolute silliest category: sportsbooks using banners at the top of your screen to dupe you into thinking something is a deal when it’s just not.

Here is a live example from FanDuel.

When I open the app, I see them promoting the TNF (Thursday Night Football) Quick Bet Special: CeeDee Lamb or Malik Nabers to score the first TD. Here’s the visual:

If I click “Bet Now!” I am offered this bet at +280, or 2.8 to 1 odds. $150 bet would win me $420. That must be good, right? It’s a “special”!

Before making this bet though, I decided to recreate the same bet. I used the best lines available across all sportsbooks, combining the individual player props of CeeDee Lamb to score first, and Malik Nabers to score first.

That must offer worse odds than the special, right?

RIGHT?!

WRONG.

I used Juice Reel to find the best lines and a quick browse showed me I could bet CeeDee at +550 on ESPNBet:

FanDuel had the best line on Malik, offering +1000, or 10:1.

I decided to distribute my $150 as follows to recreate the bet, but this time with more upside:

If CeeDee scores first, I win $522.50, but lose the $55 I bet on Malik, for a net win for $467.50.

If Malik scores first, I win $550, but lose the $95 I bet on CeeDee for a net win of $455.

If you won this bet, would you rather have $420, or at least $455?

I’ll wait, it’s a tough call.

No it’s not — this is ridiculous! The FanDuel “Special” saved me a few clicks, but cost me almost 10% of my winnings. Someone call the Better Business Bureau, because we’ve got shenanigans.

By the way, this happens all the time.

Sportsbooks will use their top banner to promote bets that do not offer the best odds in the market, and sometimes don’t even improve upon creating the same bet on their own site. Bettor beware!

Trap #2 – Promotions Tied to SGPs (Same Game Parlays)

The book wants nothing more than to get you betting parlays.

Their profit, on average, is 4 times greater on these bets.

On “Same Game Parlays”, their crown jewel of profitability, the sportsbook’s edge is massive — often greater than 50%!

This is because they compound the typical parlay house edge with a “correlation factor” that they don’t disclose to the bettor. Anytime the sportsbook’s edge is opaque, there’s a big risk that you’re being exploited.

These efforts to generate more parlay bets are working. Check out what’s happening in Illinois:

Because of how profitable these bets are for the sportsbooks, they’ll bend over backwards to offer promotions tethered to Same Game Parlays.

BallyBet offers a 30% boost:

FanDuel offers a free bet if you lose (“no sweat”):

DraftKings uses the celebrity trust of…Shannon Sharpe? (Shay Shay!) to get your attention:

Since the edge on these bets is so great, I’d avoid any promotion that requires an SGP unless your winnings boost is 75% or greater. That includes “no sweat” bets.

Even if you’re offered a 100% SGP profit boost, I’d be cautious about accidentally building a habit around these bet types.

The book offers these promotions as a gateway drug to lead bettors astray and boost their own bottom line.

As I told you up top, the book is not your friend. If they make something low friction for you, the bettor, they have something to gain. Keep your guard up!

Bet of the Week $$

There were 9 winless teams in the NFL going in to last week, and 6 of them won.

This included some big underdogs in the Rams (+7.5), Broncos (+7), Giants (+6.5), and Panthers (+6.5). Winless teams are often desperate to keep their seasons alive, and tend to outperform against the spread early in the NFL Season.

Let’s stick with that theme and consider the Bengals, Titans and Jaguars, all currently winless at 0-3, to bet on this week.

All of them have some fleas, but I feel the most comfortable taking the Bengals, and selling their opponent, the Carolina Panthers, at a high point. The Panthers won big last week in Andy Dalton’s smashing debut.

So I’ll take the Bengals -4 (or better) for one unit. If you’re uncomfortable laying 4, I don’t mind a money line bet at -205 or better.

The Titans game feels murky to me because of the ambiguity at QB for Miami, so I’ll hold off.

I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot on the Jags as well, — I’ll do so if the line creeps up to +7.

Next week I’ll share details of our new referral incentive program.

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