How to Live Bet Like a Beast

One of the most exciting innovations of modern, mobile app sports betting is the ability to bet on games live.

The first form of live betting launched via online sportsbooks in 2002, but very limited markets were available. Now, nearly every modern sportsbook offers live markets on sides, totals, player props and more.

Many books go a step further and open markets created exclusively for live betting: allowing you to bet on the next inning, next batter or even next pitch!

The process that generates live lines can create outsized opportunities for sports bettors, but like most “innovation” in betting, it’s a very profitable enterprise for the books (which means dollars are being extracted from the majority of bettors).

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I feel motivated to share the risks and opportunities of live betting strategy!

Today we’ll go deep on live (or “in-game”) betting. We’ll talk through the mechanics of how these markets are made, and then hit some Dos and Don’ts to hone our strategy. Finally, we’ll look to continue our winning ways with some NFL playoff bets of the week!

Let’s get after it.

How Do Live Lines Work?

Sportsbooks set in-game betting lines through a combination of advanced technology and human expertise. Let’s get more specific.

Technology and Algorithms

Books rely on sophisticated computer algorithms and quantitative models to generate live betting lines. These systems process vast amounts of real-time data, often repeatedly simulating games more than 10,000 times in order to produce accurate pricing.

The inputs in their data set typically include the following:

• Pre-game odds and line movement

• Current score and time remaining

• Team and player statistics

• Historical performance of the active teams, as well as performance of other teams in matching game situations

• Betting patterns and sharp action

Algorithms use this information to continuously calculate probabilities and adjust odds as games progress, but it’s not a fully computerized activity.

Human Oversight (Sportsbook Traders) 

While technology plays a crucial role, human traders are still essential in managing live betting lines. These experts monitor algorithmic outputs and make manual adjustments based on their expertise. Unique in-game situations like key player injuries or a shift in incentives (think Raiders and Chargers clinching the playoff with a tie).

A trader’s job is to strike a balance between managing risk and setting prices.

Lines must be appealing enough that customers will want to bet, but cautious enough to protect the book from major losses. The more accurately a sportsbook trader can predict what is likely to occur, the more their book will profit. It is both art and science.

Now let’s talk about how we can avoid the biggest pitfalls of in-game betting and take advantage of opportunities created.

Live Betting Dos and Don’ts

Before getting into specific axioms of successful live betting, an important warning:

• If you struggle with discipline and have a tendency to chase losses, live betting is dangerous. Pre-game betting offers the guardrail of having to watch a multi-hour game without increasing or adjusting your bet. Live betting removes that protection. If this feels risky for you, consider skipping this activity completely and puting energy into improving your pre-game betting skill.

   

• If your emotional control is a work-in-progress, but you really want to try in-game betting, here are my recommendations: (1) live bet with units only 10% of your typical size, and (2) use an Apple Watch or Fitbit, and live bet only when your heart rate is slower than average (I’m not joking).

Now for Dos and Don’ts:

Don’t substitute in-game betting for pre-game betting without good reason, because you have to overcome a larger house edge in order to win.

Sportsbooks attach larger vig to live lines to protect themselves against sharps and to increase overall profitability. A point spread listed at -110 before a game starts will typically shift to -115 immediately after commencing. Here’s an example:

Because of this extra tax, you’ll need an even better angle to profitably make a live bet than a pre-game bet.

Don’t bet on games you’re not watching.

Winning live bettors have maximum information on their bets. By making a live bet based on line movement alone, you’re operating at an information deficit to the sportsbook – this is a recipe for losing.

Do prepare ahead of time for bets you’d make if the situation arose.

While in-game betting is about reacting to live action, success hinges on preparation. Study team tendencies, player matchups, and recent form. Understand how teams perform differently when trailing or leading, or when a key player gets in foul trouble. If you’re betting player props, know substitution patterns and depth charts.

This groundwork allows you to move with confidence when the action unfolds and you have to make rapid decisions.

Do your live betting during time outs or other scheduled stoppages (end of period, halftime, etc.).

Televised games run on a 5-15 second lag, so unless you’re at the stadium, betting in between plays guarantees you’re using stale information. Stoppages protect you from this time lag, and level the playing field between you and the book.

A related risk for sports fans – if you’re watching a mobile sportsbook during a live game, live line movement will spoil big plays because of the time lag on TV!

Do use Juice Reel to compare lines amongst as many books as possible and maximize your edge.

Live lines frequently have even bigger deviation amongst sportsbooks than pre-game lines. Here’s an example from today:

This happens because algorithms may produce different outputs, and sportsbook traders can interpret data differently.

Given the need for speed and the importance of betting the best number, Juice Reel’s ability to pre-load your bet into most sportsbooks in a single click creates a critical speed advantage.

Let’s factor in all of these tactics and make some bets! 

Bets of the Week $$

Last week we went 2-1 on NFL wild card bets, winning our largest bet, a Rams + Texans teaser, and splitting our two totals bets. We profited 0.9 units on the week overall. I hope you joined us.

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 8.8 units, at a positive 24% ROI. A $100 bettor would be ahead $880!

We’ll continue to update this section weekly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Washington Commanders Money Line @+410 on BetRivers for 0.25 units 

I like this play for two reasons:

1. When Jayden Daniels scrambles outside the pocket with regularity, the Commanders offense hums. He began scrambling less frequently following his rib injury, but in a “win-or-go-home” scenario I expect that rate to be quite high and allow for passing plays like this one.

    

2. Given what we saw from the Rams last week against Minnesota, I put less weight on the impressive defensive performance we saw from Detroit in week 18, and expect Washington to stay in the game.

At better than 4:1, I see value on Washington as a live dog who can keep up with the vaunted Lions offense.

• Teaser bet of Bills +7.5 (up from +1.5) and Chiefs -2.5 (down from -8.5) on DraftKings @-120 for 1 unit

This week presents another Wong teaser opportunity with lines crossing the key numbers of both 3 and 7.

I see the Bills and Ravens as evenly matched teams, creating value on the Bills getting more than 7 points as a home underdog.

Mahomes has never lost in the Divisional (or Wild Card) round of the playoffs (8-0), but was 0-6 this year as a big favorite. Of those two trends, I’m more confident in playing the Chiefs to win, and the teased line of -2.5 covers most instances.

Finally, using what we covered today, I’ll suggest two live angles to bet if they present:

1. In the event the Lions go up by 14+ points in the first half, live bet Detroit to cover the large in-game spread (for 0.5 units or less).

Playing from a favorable game script (where the Commanders are trailing big and are likely to pass), I have more confidence in the Lions defense creating a turnover or generating a drive-killing sack.

Look out for this scenario and be ready to bet Detroit.

2. If the Rams line reaches +7 or better in the first quarter before any points are scored, live bet LA at the adjusted spread (for 0.5 units or less).

Given the Rams dominant victory over the Vikings last week, I see value in them as a fairly large underdog with a Super Bowl winning QB.

I don’t mind folks betting the +6.5 line pre-game, but I would not be surprised to see at least one book go to +7 during the game’s initial drive, and I love crossing that key number in a scenario where most of the game is yet to come.

Next week we’ll cover more NFL playoff angles with only four teams remaining!

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