NFL Conference Title Game Betting

With only two NFL games left before the Super Bowl, many methods we’ve discussed for finding winning bets are unavailable this week.

The lines do not offer Wong Teaser opportunities and we don’t have a big slate to mine for closing line value.

We do, however, have two standalone games with a lot of public money being bet.

This can create attractive lines for us to bet in alignment with the sportsbooks, and find our edge by going against public sentiment.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I’m keen to share my process for finding winning bets in a narrow NFL slate.

Today we’ll review some conference championship trends and go deep on Saquon Barkley’s crazy, record-setting rushing yards line!

As always, we’ll draw conclusions from our research and look to continue our winning ways with NFL bets of the week.

Let’s get after it.

Trends and Analysis for the AFC Championship

1. Patrick Mahomes dominates (in the playoffs, in the cold, at home).

The Chiefs are working on a legendary streak of playoff success, having won the last two Super Bowls under the leadership of Mahomes.

When playing as an underdog or small favorite in the playoffs (less than 3 points), Mahomes is a perfect 7-0 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Playing at home further bolsters this trend, as Mahomes’ straight up record is 15-2 with his only losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.

Despite growing up in Texas with little exposure to cold weather football, Mahomes has adapted to the Midwest climate and has an immaculate record in cold weather games at Arrowhead Stadium.

He is 11-1 overall when the temperature is 35°F or colder and 10-2 against the spread.

When the temperature is 18°F or below, he’s a perfect 5-0 record (both straight up and ATS).

The Chiefs are playing at home on Sunday as a 1.5 point favorite, and the predicted temperature will be 24°F.

2. Public money seems to be coming in on Buffalo.

Despite the Chiefs’ dominance described above, the point spread in this game has barely moved from the opening line of Chiefs -1.5.

I hypothesize this is because Josh Allen and the Bills have heavy public support, likely driven by a combination of fatigue from the Chiefs’ winning, and support for Josh Allen to finally break through to his first Super Bowl.

Juice Reel’s Sharpmush^TM feature does not currently show a meaningful skew toward either side of this bet:

We do, however, see significantly more money coming in on Buffalo with nearly 8 times more dollars wagered to date:

We’ll draw conclusions from these trends in our bet of the week below. Now let’s dig in to the most unusual line from Sunday’s early game!

Saquon’s Rushing Line

As referenced in our introduction, Saquon’s opening rushing yards line of 130.5 (!!) was the highest ever listed for an NFL player by DraftKings, and likely many other books as well.

Why is this line so high?

Here’s my quick analysis:

1. Historic season for Saquon: Barkley had a season for the ages, averaging 125.3 rushing yards per game and accumulating 2,005 rushing yards in just 16 games.

2. Success vs the Commanders: In two matchups this season, Barkley rushed for 150 and 146 yards against Washington.

3. Commanders’ poor run defense: Washington ranked 28th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing an average of 136.7 yards per game.

4. Last week’s performance: Barkley rushed for 205 yards last week against the Rams.

5. Weather conditions: Expected snowy conditions in Philadelphia could lead to a run-heavy game plan.

6. Saquon’s yards per carry: Saquon averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season, so if he matched that figure, he’d require 23 carries (a reasonable number) to exceed 130 yards.

Interestingly, despite all of the credible reasons for Saquon having a monster rushing game, the line has come down since opening at 130.5, likely influenced by sharp bettors taking the under.

Here is a Juice Reel overview of betting lines by sportsbook, showing most books clustering around 127 yards as of Thursday:

While wagering splits are harder to find on player prop bets such as this one, the information I can find indicates most bettors prefer betting the over, knowing Saquon could buoy them to victory on a single 4th quarter carry as he did last week.

I’ll take a position bet based on this analysis below.

Spread or Moneyline?

I’ve written on this before, but want to refresh readers who may show up for NFL playoff betting and then shut down their accounts for another 11 months — analysis is one part of winning, but choosing how to act on your angle is the other.

The main decision is whether to bet the point spread or the moneyline.

While point spreads and moneylines generally move in tandem, unique betting days like the Super Bowl, and to a lesser extent conference title games, can create offset markets where one approach has an outsized edge vs the other.

Here is a conversion chart for NFL betting as reference:

This chart equates every incremental half point in a betting spread to a corresponding “fair” moneyline.

For an example of how to use this chart, let’s consider the Chiefs vs Bills game:

The best spread I can bet the Bills Sunday at is +2, which typically equates to a moneyline of +116 based on our chart. Sunday, though, I can only get +110 on the Bills moneyline, which is a mathematically weaker proposition than taking the 2 points. If you’re inclined to bet Buffalo, choose the point spread bet in order to capture the most value.

I love referencing this chart to detect when public betting is driving atypical separation between the moneyline and spread — we’ll revisit this in the near future when we review the Super Bowl match up.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week our analysis was spot on as we went 3-0 (!!) and won 2.5 units. This included our in-game Rams scenario, and a winning bet on the Commanders as a big moneyline underdog (+410).

As we predicted, Jayden Daniels was dynamic on the ground and through the air, the Bills and Chiefs covered the teased lines (and the primary spread), and despite challenging weather, the Rams stayed within 7 points of Philadelphia. I hope you joined in!

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 11.3 units, at a positive 29% ROI. We’ll continue to track and update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Kansas City ML @-120 on Hard Rock Bet for 1 unit

I’d like to see Josh Allen break through as much as anyone, but I do not bet with my heart, and Mahomes’ track record detailed above makes this the right side for me.

Also, the Bills were fortunate to win the turnover battle last week (+3 vs Baltimore). I believe Mahomes’ poise will prevent that avenue to a Bills victory, making their path comparatively more challenging.

• Saquon Barkley under 128.5 Rush Yards on DraftKings @-110 for 1 unit

As soon as I heard about this line, I viewed it as a sports betting version of irrational exuberance: excessively valuing the output of a charismatic, star player.

Saquon failed to reach this line in 10 out of 19 games in this year’s regular season + playoffs; more than half the time.

I expect Washington will scheme to stop Saquon on the ground. They’ll take their chances in a passing battle with the Eagles given the confidence they’ve shown in their young quarterback.

The books will almost certainly be rooting for the under, and I will align myself with them!