Player Props Mastery – Christmas Day Bets

Most people who sell sports betting advice are not winning bettors.

Some are entertainers and don’t pretend otherwise. Others are salespeople who use fear and greed to hoodwink people into paying for their “can’t miss locks”.

My favorite thing about Juice Reel is that it allows users to find wildly skilled bettors from the community, based on verified betting results.

Anyone can pay for transparent access to top bettors’ wagers, in real time, as a path to making better bets.

Today, as the Robin Hood of sports betting, I am thrilled to introduce you to Calvin — AKA CalvinAndHobo, arguably the best bettor on the Juice Reel platform (certainly in the top 5). He’s someone I learned a lot from, and so can you.

We sat down for an-depth interview, and here I’ll share his background, his growth into a professional bettor, and his cutting edge tactics to beat NBA player props. Best of all, he’ll be the source our Christmas Day NBA bets of the week. This newsletter can’t be missed!

Let’s get after it.

Calvin’s Betting Record

Before getting into our conversation, here are Calvin’s credentials as a bettor.

He’s ahead over $76,000 this year with an average bet size of ~$200.

Check out this absolute monster of a trend chart:

More than $76,000 in profit in 2024

Approximately 88% of his winnings have come from NBA bets, and over the past 6 weeks, he’s in the top 1% of Juice Reel bettors by both Juice Rank and by profit. He’s up 150 units in that time frame.

Top 1% bettor, up 150 units in the last 45 days

This month, he’s ahead $24,000 with an ROI above 13% (!!).

$24k profit this month

The numbers speak for themselves — let’s meet the man behind such betting mastery and understand how he produces enviable consistency in generating profit.

Calvin’s Journey

Like many sports bettors, Calvin grew up as a basketball fan. He began gambling in the world of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) before transitioning into sports betting.

“I started playing DFS just for fun as a hobby, probably 10 years ago,” Calvin shared. “I’ve always been a numbers guy, preferring math to English and concrete answers to ambiguity. I realized the edge in sports betting is way bigger than it is in DFS.”

Calvin moved to rural Iowa about 6 years ago for a job, and when sports betting became legal, he saw an opportunity. Taking advantage of new account bonuses, he strategically maximized his yield from those bets and created a $2,000 initial bankroll, all courtesy of the sportsbooks.

Here’s Calvin on how he grew that bankroll over time:

“I began as a $10 bettor, focusing on player props. For a couple of years, I broke even, which is actually very good. I got more serious about research because I love basketball and the nerdy discussions. I noticed patterns, trends, and minutes allocations that weren’t being accounted for and started winning.”

Every time Calvin doubled his bankroll, he increased his unit size accordingly.

“I turned that $2,000 into $4,000, then went up to $20 units, then $8,000 and $40 units. I kept all the winnings rolling over in play. I was lucky enough not to have medical bills or kids, so I could keep growing as I won. It just grew and grew, and I’ve been riding the train ever since.”

How to Win at Player Props

Let’s break down the key elements to Calvin’s winning approach.

Calvin’s focus is on NBA Player Prop Bets.

Player props are wagers based around a player producing over or under some fixed amount of a certain statistic, or a combination of multiple stats. Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-pointers and Blocks are most common.

For example, here’s a set of player prop lines for the Points-Rebounds-Assists combination on Caesars:

Calvin’s process for finding great bets leans on his deep knowledge and engagement with basketball. He identifies unusual player situations, like changes to player health, playing time, or team strategy, to further research. Those situations create a smaller universe in which to find profitable betting opportunities.

The key elements of Calvin’s approach are as follows:

1. Minutes Are The Building Block — “The 1st step is minutes,” Calvin emphasized. “How many minutes is the player going to play? That’s very often glossed over by casual bettors. And it’s the most important part of a bet.” Calvin was clear that estimating all statistics, at a most basic level, is primarily driven by how much time players spend on the court.
2. Injuries Impact — “After minutes, it’s about injuries,” Calvin shared. “Is the player questionable or probable? Are they perpetually injured so they don’t play back-to-backs anymore? If I can say, ‘Oh, Khris Middleton has two ankles that are made of cement’ when he’s questionable, that’s very different than Nikola Jokic being listed as questionable when he plays every game.” Understanding what changes will flow from a potential injury, like increased minutes for another player, is a big part of Calvin’s edge.
3. Player Interactions — Calvin’s next step, is considering the team surrounding the player he’s researching. “For example, a high-usage bench player might have a different role if they’re moved into the starting lineup next to different teammates. So it’s how those minutes line up with teammates and if their role is going to change.” Calvin elaborated, “A perfect example would be Jalen Williams on the Thunder. He was playing center when Chet [Holmgren] got hurt, and before Isaiah Hartenstein came back. So his rebound props were a great bet, just taking the overs for many games in a row.”
4. Valuing Opportunity Over Streaky Outcomes — Calvin focuses on a player’s expected production, based on their opportunities, and filters out the noise produced by runs of good luck or cold streaks. “When a player shoots 5 for 6 from the three point line, five games in a row, people think that means something,” he said. “I disagree with those people. I think that doesn’t mean anything. The important number is the 6 attempts. It’s not the 5 makes.” Similarly, Calvin will look at a players “potential assists” to assess the potential of a bet, rather than starting with their actual assists. This gives him a better idea of a player’s true playmaking ability, regardless of whether their teammates are hitting shots.
5. Line Shopping and Combo Bets — Once Calvin has a player angle he wants to bet, he’ll compare the best lines available, using Juice Reel, and typically prioritize combo stats (like grouping Points + Rebounds + Assists into one bet). “If I have a player who I believe will play 5 more minutes than the books think he’s gonna play, his points are going to be projected too low, and his rebounds are going to be projected too low, and his assists will be projected too low,” he explained. Placing a bet on combined stats, rather than just points, reduces Calvin’s volatility and allows him to maintain his unit size while reducing the size of his downswings.

Using the process described above, Calvin finds winning angles that often last more than one game. He sees sportsbooks being slow to adjust to changes in team rotation or player’s usage, this allows him a few games of edge from many of the opportunities he uncovers.

Highs and Lows From Life as a Pro

While Calvin wins pretty consistently, his approach still generates glorious highs and fear-inducing downs.

Calvin loves using alternate lines, or single-player same game parlays, for betting on players with high variance in their performances. One of his most memorable such wins came from betting on Donovan Clingan:

“This man is hilarious because he averages one foul every 5 minutes. He plays MMA on the basketball court,” Calvin laughed.

“When he can stay out of foul trouble, his ceiling is so high it creates outsized opportunity. But he just can’t stop hitting people! He’s 27 feet tall and tries to block every shot.”

Calvin hit a +4000 parlay on Clingan, combining alternate points, rebounds, and blocks.” Check the receipt:

“I am pretty sure that I’ve lost more bets than I’ve won on him, but I’m profitable at something like 200% ROI because when I win I hit massive amounts of money.”

On the downside, Calvin shared a particularly rough patch from the beginning of last NBA season:

“In the beginning of the NBA season. I won the first 2 or 3 days, and then I think I lost 17 out of the next 21.”

This losing streak was especially nerve-wracking because it came at the start of the season. Calvin found himself questioning whether the books had figured out how to produce such strong lines he’d lost his edge. Fortunately this was not the case.

Advice for Bettors

Calvin shared that his edge is actually largest on games that are taken less seriously by players.

“Summer League betting, Olympics betting and preseason NBA betting is my favorite time of the year. That’s where the biggest edges are. That’s where I bet the most money,” Calvin revealed.

“They’re the most garbage games, but that’s where the advantage comes from. Players are getting ruled out and no one knows about it except for me and a few die hard fans or bettors. The audience for that reporting is so niche.”

I asked Calvin about expanding his bets beyond the NBA, and he had a thoughtful take and some sound advice:

“I’ve tried betting NFL and baseball props every year, and I break even or lose a bit of money. I don’t have the same edge in football or baseball that I do in basketball because I don’t intuitively know the games as well.”

“I am fully aware now that I can’t win at football or baseball, so I stay away. Not betting something is just as important to winning money as betting something that wins.”

If you want to read my interview with Calvin in it’s entirety, you can find it here.

We went deeper on everything I’ve mentioned above, and you’ll also find great takes on (1) disguising yourself as a sharp bettor to stay in the sportsbook’s good graces, (2) which NBA player is most consistent, and (3) what sites and resources a beginning bettor should use to try and emulate his success.

Check it out!

How to Subscribe to Calvin’s Bets

If you want access to all of Calvin’s bets in real time, both to tail them and to learn from them, you can subscribe to his betting feed on Juice Reel at this link: CalvinAndHobo.

Click the “Unlock Bets” button to begin your weekly pass and you’ll get alerts every time he makes a bet, including full details, along with the best lines by which to make a similar bet yourself.

He currently charges $9.99 per week, and having subscribed personally for about a month, I can’t believe the value I get from that investment – it’s incredible, give it a try.

Bets of the Week $$

Last week we went 1-1, as Notre Dame overpowered Indiana, but Thursday Night Football was unexpectedly high-scoring.

Since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 1.9 units, at a positive 10% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Now, let’s see Calvin’s process in action, with two NBA player prop bets for the big Christmas Day slate and his corresponding analysis:

• Jusuf Nurkic over 1.5 assists @-121 on Caesars for 1 unit
• Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 rebounds @-122 on FanDuel for 1 unit

“The Nurkic bet is an example of taking a stand on an injury. Devin Booker has missed the last two games with a groin strain. Two years ago, Devin Booker had a similar injury, rushed back too early to play on Christmas day, re-injured his groin and missed the next 21 games.”

“We are betting on Booker sitting this game. In a 140 minute sample size with Booker off the court, Nurkic is averaging 3.2 assists per the 24 minutes he averages per game. I expect more than 24 minutes against Jokic on Christmas if Nurkic can stay out of foul trouble, which would make this a massively advantageous bet.”

“If Booker gets ruled in, with no minutes limit, this bet becomes a coin flip at a price of -121. If he’s out though, this line would trade at -250 or -300, so let’s go for it.”

“Jaden McDaniels defensive presence is going to be needed against Luka. He’s averaged 30.2 minutes per game this season, but last time vs Dallas he played 35. McDaniels has averaged 5.3 rebounds per game in 31.4 minutes over his last 18 games and this bet is based on the combination of those two data points.”