Ranking Live Sportsbook Promotions

Opening an online sportsbook app can be an assault on the senses.

Every book has a slew of promotions and low-friction options to induce more betting.

These hooks, however, are not all what they seem. Some are valuable ways to increase your bankroll, but many are deceptive attempts to put “lipstick on a pig”.

As the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the house and giving to the bettors, I’m excited to break down some active promotions to help you navigate them more skillfully.

Today we’ll assess three live sportsbook promotions to help you value them correctly. We’ll start with the worst, most deceptive “offer”, and progress to the best incentive.

As always, we’ll then close with our bet(s) of the week and preview an amazing holiday edition of the newsletter coming out early next week.

Let’s get after it.

Promotion #1 – “The TNF Quick Bet Special”

One thing I see a lot is sportsbooks using banners at the top of your screen to promote a curated bet or “special”.

Here is a live example from FanDuel.

When I open the app, I see them promoting the TNF (Thursday Night Football) Quick Bet Special: Ladd McConkey or Courtland Sutton to score the first TD in tonight’s game.

If I click “Bet Now!” I am offered this bet at +330, or 3.3 to 1 odds. $100 bet would win me $330. That must be good, right? It’s a “special”!

Before making this bet though, I decided to recreate the same bet. Using Juice Reel, I found the best lines available across all sportsbooks, combining the individual player props of Ladd McConkey to score first, and Courtland Sutton to score first.

That must offer worse odds than the special, right?

RIGHT?!

WRONG.

I used Juice Reel to find the best lines and a quick browse showed me I could bet McConkey at +800 on multiple sites, including DraftKings or Fanatics:

ESPN Bet and DraftKings had the best line on Sutton, offering +900, or 9:1.

I decided to distribute my $100 as follows to recreate the bet, but this time with more upside:

If McConkey scores first, I win $424, but lose the $47 I bet on Sutton, for a net win for $377.

If Sutton scores first, I win $423, but lose the $53 I bet on McConkey for a net win of $370.

If you won this bet, would you rather have $330 from the “special”, or at least $370?

I’ll wait, it’s a tough call.

No it’s not — this is ridiculous! The FanDuel “Special” saved me a few clicks, but cost me more than 10% of my winnings. Someone call the Better Business Bureau, because we’ve got shenanigans.

By the way, this happens all the time.

Sportsbooks will use their top banner to promote bets that do not offer the best odds in the market, and sometimes don’t even improve upon creating the same bet on their own site. Bettor beware – this is not a valuable promotion!

Promotion #2 – Parlay Insurance

As we’ve discussed, the book wants nothing more than to get you betting parlays.

Their profit, on average, is 4 times greater on these bets.

One common tactic I see them use to encourage this type of betting, is to offer a promo called “parlay insurance”.

Here’s a live example from BetRivers:

The promotions says: Bet a 4+ leg parlay in college basketball, and get your money back as a bonus bet if you lose only one leg.

It’s important to remember that a bonus bet is less valuable than receiving a cash back refund. You’ll need to make a bonus bet wager in order to recoup value, and even with expert strategy, you’ll often get back less than 70% of the value. I use a 50% estimate below.

To value this bet, I’ll bring us back to this chart we reviewed two weeks ago, focusing on four-leg parlays, the bolded row.

If we bet all sixteen combinations of a four-leg parlay for $10 each, with no insurance, we’d see the following results:

• 15 (losing combinations) * $10 = $150 loss

• 1 (winning combination) * 12.28 (payout multiple) * $10 = $122.8 win

• $27.2 net loss

If we now receive a bonus bet back on the four combinations that include exactly one loss, we’ll call these “insurance combinations”, our results are as follows:

• 11 (losing combinations) * $10 = $110 loss

• 1 (winning combination) * 12.28 (payout multiple) * $10 = $122.8 win

• 4 (insurance combinations) * 50% (bonus bet recoup value) * $10 = $20 loss

• $7.2 net loss

So while the “insurance” detailed here greatly reduces the house edge on a 4-team parlay, this promotion does not produce a bet with a positive expectation.

If you’re dead set on betting a multi-leg parlay, use this, but otherwise take a pass – it’ll just encourage you to build a bad habit around a bankroll-draining bet type.

Promotion #3 – The (Unencumbered) Profit Boost

The most basic promotions are often the best.

You’ll see lots of profit boosts conditioned on making a bet with a large house edge (think parlay, SGP, first touchdown scorer, etc.).

Here an example from BallyBet:

These offers are deceptive, as the boost frequently does not create enough value to surpass the large house edge on more exotic bets.

Sometimes, however, you’ll get boosts that have no strings attached. When I receive a “10% profit boost” that is not conditioned on making any specific type of bet, I feel joy! The higher percentage the boost, the better this offer, but any straight up boost is good value.

Let’s quickly value one such offer from Fanatics:

If I use this boost on a standard -110 spread bet for the maximum $100, I’ll win $9.09 more than I would have otherwise (adjusting for the vig), half the time.

So this promotion is worth about $4.55.

While that won’t start covering your parents’ Lexus payments, it’s clear value without deception and I’ll bet it to the max sizing every time.

Let’s get to the bets!

Bet of the Week $$

Last week, for the first time, we disappointingly went winless, and lost two units. The Panthers were unable to stop Cooper Rush’s best game, and we only won one teaser leg when the Seahawks couldn’t contain the Packers at home.

Even so, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are ahead 2.0 units, at a positive 11% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Notre Dame -7 @-115 on BetMGM for 1 unit

• Under 41.5 in tonight’s Broncos/Chargers game on DraftKings @-110 for 1 unit

Indiana looked overmatched in their only matchup with a team of this caliber, and I like taking an under including the key number of 41.